News from izumi3682

  1. So as long as it happens before 2023 op will be right even by one second. Not that I believe it will happen that soon. I believe agi will happen before 2030.

  2. I always love seeing your posts. So do you still believe we’ll have a “singularity” around 2030 or so?

  3. Oh absolutely! My forecast has always gone like this: "I predict the "technological singularity will happen right about the year 2030, give or take two years."

  4. I'm tryn not to to "flip flop". OK, I give. It's gonna take a zettascale supercomputer. So we all hafta wait for 2027 I guess. So you might be able to get full resolution at 4 exaflops, but max settings might have to wait a bit.

  5. It's Crysis. Back then CryEngine was so technically demanding the friggin' thing couldn't run on top-grade GPUs of the time. You know, I still think CryEngine games look better than Unreal...

  6. My refutation to the power of exponential progress has always been the same: the 33rd square represents exponential demand, not exponential supply. There are no processes in the human society that scale exponentially, due to both linear limitations on physical production and distribution, as well as conflicts of interest resulting in financial constraints and regulations. The reality of 2022 is that innovation in semiconductor research has been painstakingly slow, while their manufacturing cannot keep up with demand. The proverbial Wright flyer is already loaded with tons of cargo, saddled with absurd safety procedures, and has the runway occupied with horse carriage lobbyists. The last great invention to enjoy explosive growth was the smartphone, and that was because it's a small gadget that is cheap to manufacture, easy to distribute and allows for a slew of new profit opportunities. Infrastructure, construction and energy, though? Stuck in the past century.

  7. I only referred to "exponential" when describing exponential or greater than exponential computing processing power improvement or the exponential or greater than exponential improvement in the increase in the megajoules output in relation to the last 3 years of the NIF experiment.

  8. Flash! I just posted this just now. The following article is dated from today, 12 Jan 22.

  9. Think of the cats and toast we could save from replacing them with this new perpetual motion machine engine.

  10. Ah-ah-ah-ah-ah! A time crystal is not perpetual motion. A time crystal is an entity that its continuous pulse of configuration change is intrinsic to its existence. Like the egg shell is intrinsic to the existence of an egg. There is no energy produced or lost and therefore no violation of the laws of thermodynamics.

  11. What do you promote? Capitalism forever? Mm, no. That's not how it is going to go at all. Your comment is pretty low effort. Discuss with me. I will discuss with you. I will never downvote one of your comments. I only upvote or I leave alone.

  12. Not really. I don’t know how much of a dedicated futurology fan you are or how much further and deeper into the rabbit holes of reading articles rather than just headlines, etc. but I can tell you most certainly almost everybody really underestimates what we are capable of automating if we just put more funding into it. At this point within a couple of years engineers can design and create robots to automate almost everything a human can do especially those that are non-creative/emotional

  13. Totally! I’ve had that exact discussion before! Haha. Emotional and creativity will be the last things to be properly automated, but I certainly never said that it wouldn’t happen. And I have definitely thought about the idea of AI eventually being so much more proficient at making creative works that tickle our fancies in such layered, nuanced and perfect ways that human art will pale in comparison. Human made media will look as bad in comparison as dated sitcoms from the 80s compare to the best shows on Netflix today.

  14. I've seen you around quite a bit and given the age of your account I would assume you have been predicting this kind of stuff for a long time now. If that's the case, did you ever predict anything for 2020, 2021 or 2022, and if so, has it come to fruition (obviously we've yet to see stuff in 2022)?

  15. I predicted something in late Dec 2017. It might not initially look like what you are wondering about, but if you read the entire commentary, you will see the method to my madness.

  16. Which kind of multiverse? The supposed quantum braided one, or the Linde bubbles? Or stacked presents, one layered on the next? There is not a fleck of evidence for any of these, and the Linde one by definition can have no effect on us whatsoever. If "real" is the term that we apply to that which is active in a given situation, then all of these are unreal.

  17. Well, I mean is it possible to define "something" outside of our known universe? Doesn't the big bang theory postulate that a big bang occurs when a given event happens in a hyperdimensional space and that results in the inflation that, for example, made our universe. Like I said in a comment to somebody else here, isn't it the math that works out so elegantly and precisely that supports the possibility of these flights of theoretical physics fantasies?

  18. I don't know if this is the answer, but I looked it up because I was kinda wondering about that my ownself. Here is what I found.

  19. Is this vehicle for real? There is much conflicting information out there regarding autonomous vehicles. This looks like a level 5 with no steering wheel, how far away are we from seeing on the streets?

  20. Currently Waymo robotaxis in Tempe AZ are completely driverless.

  21. So what “impossible” things do you think AI will demonstrate five years from now?

  22. Artificial general intelligence, for one. I believe it will still be "domain specific, but within each domain the AI will be aware, will be able to identify problems and issues and will be able to take appropriate action according to it's algorithm. No consciousness or self-awareness needed. In fact such traits would be completely unnecessary and probably unhelpful to boot.

  23. I love the optimism, but its just as likely the elites engineer a way to get rid of the 99%. What are some advancements or tech that must happen in order for the singularity to occur in your time frame of 2030? What are some the things that you're looking for, that if they don't come to pass in the next few years, puts the singularity off further than 2030?

  24. Yeah we gotta make some changes. But I suspect that the ARA itself will make the changes. First off by making some kind of UBI essential, because it will take enough human employment that for it to take anymore would be a moot point. I wrote a couple of things about what I see going on with society, mostly from a USA-centric point of view, on account of I live in the USA, but it looks like this kind of technological usurpation will be world wide.

  25. Crazy stuff. I am both afraid and aroused at these supercomputers.

  26. Ikr! You might find the following series of links to essays I've written interesting too.

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