[Daily Discussion] - Wednesday, December 08, 2021

  1. This is my seventh December since joining this sub in late 2015 - and this December is by far the most glum with the exception of 2018. The funny thing is, 2018 was supposed to be glum, given how things unfolded from 2013 (euphoria) to 2014 (despair) after the Nov 2012 halving. 2018 was the despair to 2017’s euphoria following the Jul 2016 halving. 2022 will be despair here soon enough. Where was our 2021 euphoria following the May 2020 halving? Did it end 10 months ago in February when we hit $55K? Since then, we’ve had anemically higher ATHs every so often, which bookended three months of crypto winter in the middle of this summer. Not. As. Advertised.

  2. I'm not in Bitcoin anymore and it feels good. Actually making money again. There's no medal for sticking it out while CME futures drains the blood from the corpse of Bitcoin. You have to look out for yourself, don't fall for this religion/sports team stuff. A 20% move is called a Monday in other coins instead of a quarter's worth of movement destroyed in an afternoon in Bitcoin. My only regret is not getting out sooner.

  3. Well as much as it pains me, I've gone 35% cash. Mostly coin 2, but a little Bitcoin as well. I just don't like the macro view here for reasons I've listed before. The rest is remaining and just gonna park it somewhere along with the stables and wait. Daddy needs a truck and enough to live comfortably for a few years. Good luck to everyone here.

  4. A think a lot of people are feeling this way. So hopefully that means a big green daddy sized dildo comes to fuck us all.

  5. A lot of people are making arguments that it doesn’t matter whether or not people buy at this price range. They’re saying that the prices aren’t being driven by demand but instead are being driven by a few whales on exchanges.

  6. I remind everyone here 7-10% APY gains are gold standard in TradFi and nobody sustains years of 20%+ APY gains.

  7. But Moonmath also told me BTC would be over a million by now! How can I reconcile these contradictions? Another soma please!

  8. Bitcoin has been on a bit of a roller coaster in the last week or so but in case you’re wondering why, a big part of it is due to .... no idea

  9. Way better than I thought it'd be - listened to about half of it. I just worry they will still drag their feet or suggest ridiculous regulatory measures even though this conversation seemed to go well.

  10. This hearing was really interesting. I think the most important takeaway for me is that Congress seems to be keen to regulate, but not too much. They seem to understand that there are some things that should be regulated and some things that shouldn’t be.

  11. Oh god this hearing is painful now they're talking about PoW. She didn't even answer the question just talking about stellar lmao.

  12. The way I look at it: it's very unlikely that any regulation will make a difference between cryptos based on their exact consensus mechanism, so if they hear that not all crypto is PoW (besides also being explained properly about PoW), that's good for us in general.

  13. But that's simply not true. If I spend $100mm on mining hardware, I'm not going to leave that hardware idle until some excess renewable energy shows up on the grid. BTC mining is hugely capital intensive, and miners must run their hardware 24/7/365 if they hope to turn a profit. You can't just run your equipment when there is excess renewable energy available.

  14. Just for fun, what is the maximum loss you could experience, based on the closing price compared to the highest closing price at any point in BTC's history before then:

  15. Not sure I follow. Are you asking, what's the lowest price Bitcoin has ever been during the period after which you bought your first BTC?

  16. If you were captured and your captor asked you whether the price would be, at the daily close of January 8, 2022,

  17. i agree with your ranges for january 8, you could be a bookie for btc prices! this is super hard to answer! but without looking at charts and basing it from what i remmeber of what said chart looks like - i’m betting we’re out of the middle range. so that leaves me with 2 choices of above 54 or less than 47. between the two, i’m guessing we’re going under.

  18. I'm bearish. Below 47k. Macro is ass cheeks. Inflation numbers look bad, and as much as you'd think that'd be good for BTC it spooks tradfi and by proxy Bitcoin dumps because of that. We're in this weird zone where inflation is bad, but not so bad everyone is running to the exit. Markets as a whole are super

  19. I guess this is ultimately a good thing, but any expectation of the year-after-halving spike is all but over - it’s over for 2021 and it’s over forever. From January open to the year’s peak, 2013 saw a 100x rise and 2017 saw a. 20x rise. In 2021, it’s mid December at $49K after starting Jan 1 at 29K. So that’s a… 1.7x rise. Hard to ever again argue that 2021 was like 2017 or 2013 in any respect. 2021 PA underperformed every single prediction in the entire industry and turned some industry talking heads into a punchline. One and a half times your money? Sort of what you got if you held Amazon this year. Once BTC becomes the ‘reliable blue chip stock’ of crypto (it is already, but now its returns are downright boring) we will likely see muted rises and muted falls in the future. And, I guess, that’s the part that is better overall.

  20. Good for the currency use case I guess, low volatility is a requirement if that were to ever happen at scale. I don't think anyone can predict any of this though, we could see huge spikes out of nowhere on some weird news or nothing.

  21. Pretty obvious thing to say, but I feel we sometimes get too obsessed with historical numbers and waves and lines that we overlook the obvious and forget that a pandemic has happened this time, which obviously didn't happen around the previous halvenings...

  22. The halving was earlier in the year in 2020 compared to 2016. Measuring from January to December is much more arbitrary than measuring from the halving. If you start measuring 2 months earlier (so November 2020), it's a 3.8x gain to now, which is much better than 1.7x. Plus I think there's still a chance we'll see more bull market next year.

  23. if we don’t see any movement until Feb then i’ll be convinced. Spikes don’t need to occur at the exact same dates as prior to be valid, that’s absurd. Unforeseen events will also cause these timelines to fluctuate. I’m still bullish until we break below 30k, then i’ll just wait so in either case i’m chillin.

  24. I also liquidated my trade stack at 57k. Looking to do the same - ladder back in starting at the low 40s or low 60s, depending on how things go.

  25. Can you post the long term holder data if you have it? I heard numbers like 150k btc moved to exchanges before the summer dump but this one was like 10k moved to exchanges, does that sound in ballpark correct? I.e whales haven't cashed out and are actually accumulating right now and sending off exchange to wallets?

  26. My unprofessional take on it is that the amount of btc on exchanges today vs a year ago for instance isnt low enough to have any real impact and therefore it is misguiding. If there is 2.3 million on exchanges vs 1.7 million it doesnt really make a difference. Maybe also those 0.6 million difference werent to be sold anyways. I have some btc on an exchange but have no plan to sell them. If I were to send them to a private wallet I add to those bitcoin leaving the exchanges but it is false data

  27. Random prediction: The return to 70%+ BTC dominance will be fueled by a combination of FDIC allowing banks to provide Bitcoin custody services and a US Spot ETF getting approved.

  28. My initial reaction seeing the 70% figure was this guy is a maxi fanboi, but I must say that it would actually be quite possible, given your two assumptions.

  29. I created a quick intro guide in case you’re like me and you lurked for too long here and didn’t fully understand Bitcoin or blockchain but were too afraid to ask

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may have missed