Kremlin plotting to liquidate Lukashenko, seize control of Belarus army - Robert Lansing Institute

  1. Putin seizing Belarus or even its army would remove any remaining justification countries might have for staying in Russia's orbit. Lukashenko has been nothing but loyal to him and his reward would be a bullet to the head. Every single country remaining in the CSTO or EEU would be scrambling for protection from China or the US.

  2. If we’ve seen this, Lukashenko knows it. Be interesting to see what happens from here, especially if Belarus military doesn’t go along with this plan

  3. He's been the most loyal guy to Putin, it's his army that has resisted going into UKR. I don't see how killing him is going to help RUS at all.

  4. Yea I think that's the actual play here by Russia. Using fear to force his subordinates to do what he wants... If he can create a strong enough rumour that this is what he is planning, Luka is far more likely to fall in line and sent the Belarusian army to help.

  5. Or the whole article is just pot stirring by the Ukrainians or the Poles or the Belarusian opposition or a faction inside russia and not even 1% of it is true.

  6. It's starting to be the last hours for Belarus to rise up against Lukashenka's administration and Russia before Russia comes for their country.

  7. Lukashenko has to know this, and the funny thing about despots is how easy they turn. It would be the ultimate comedy of errors if he turns on Russia.

  8. If he did that, most likely Russia would start attacking the Belarussian as well. And then there would be a coup most likely, and Putin would probably continue to attack them, and then the Belarussian army would start attacking Russian troops on Ukrainian soil.

  9. I don't know if he does. Stalin was convinced Hitler was keeping his word despite a lot of his intelligence officers telling him otherwise

  10. Lukashenko's candle has reached its end. His short term prospects are being "removed" by Russia's army as they take over Belarus, or by his own army as they remove the Russians from their territory.

  11. Belorussian diplomats were having some discussions with Western nations a few months ago at the UN.

  12. Ruzzia sent 12k troops to Belarus, while Belarus military is around 50k troops at least. If ruzzians try to take over the country and the military disagrees, or straight out rebels, the 12k ruzzian troops there will be outnumbered 4 to 1. They need at the very least make up some story about Potato man selling out to US or UK or someone else before they can off him because even Belarusians won’t like having their dictator assassinated and replaced by some cunt from Moscov.

  13. The Belarusian army doesn’t really exist as an effective fighting force ( classic dictator play, you can’t have an effective army if you want to stay in power )

  14. That’s a bad assumption, Belarus has 50k soldiers all over the country and Russia has them all concentrated in a spot. If Russia manages to kill the 🐽 then it will be a nightmare for troops to respond.

  15. The Russians will frame it as a Ukrainian operative who assassinated Luka. The Russians have been taking the Belarusian equipment for their war with Ukraine, I've been thinking for a while that this would be the perfect opportunity for the Russians to take over Belarus after the army has been drained of all of their equipment and can't put up much of a fight.

  16. The important question is, if belarussian troops are of the same quality as russian, and if either those what we see in Ukraine.

  17. Well, if they get rid of Lucky Luka and their army chief is under Russian control then there wouldnt be any army resistance as the guy running it is Russian asset. Game over.

  18. That works only if whole Belarusian army sits in one spot right next to russian army. If Russia decided to od surprise attack on presidential palace then his army won't help him. Then again, we know how well russian army does these attacks and capitol occupations...

  19. I highly doubt all soldiers in Belarus hate Russia. Not sure what the real number is but if even half are pro Russian the other half not so much...would be easier for Russia to take over as that's the path they are currently on.

  20. Remember when Lukashenko was talking to a standing general in front of the map when the war started? This guy was sitting next to that general.

  21. Luka is far better politician than Putler. He will outplay and survive and I hope that Belarus turns out to be the key to toppling the Russian empire

  22. The 4D chess-move would be something along the lines of kidnapping and shooting him. If the politics is played out, I wouldn't put it past Putin to do that.

  23. I don't see Belarusians just rolling over and accepting this, since many are fighting against Russia, and supporting Ukraine

  24. They'll probably kill Lukashenko and then accuse Ukraine. That won't make the dictator any more palatable to his own people, but then they'll get to push the whole Belarus army across their southern border.

  25. I looked for info on who the Lansing Institute people are and who funds them. We can all look at their About Us page, but the staff profiles don't tell me much.

  26. Agree - as much as he’s a punk he has managed to play the game to the extent him and his army has still not gone over the border as Putin wanted him to. I’m not saying that’s what he’ll do but isn’t now potentially Putins weakest moment, isn’t now a juncture for Lukashenko to open channels to the west and help further scupper Russia?

  27. Highly doubt this is true, there isn’t much there from Belarus that would help Russia. It might keep Russia going for a few weeks if they absorbed the military but they would also be withdrawing attention from Ukraine and losing more ground quicker in the meantime

  28. I mean, in a twisted logic, it would make sense. Putin needs a win, and it won't be coming from Ukraine. Absorbing Belarus would count as a win somehow.

  29. Does that mean that Lukashenko just don’t want to engage his country in war for Putin as sanctions could be too much for his country,that’s why Putin wants to liquidate him right?

  30. Think it's a mixture of both. Trying to force a bunch of unwilling soldiers over the border is unlikely to succeed. They'll either turn on their superiors or they'll be otherwise engaged allowing for his foes to take action.

  31. If i had to bet on two of the top guys surviving this shit show id bet on Luka and Lavrov. Old crocociles

  32. No idea who the person(s) behind the Lansing Institute are. I rather suspect it’s one guy in his mother’s basement. But the outfit is named after Robert Lansing, who was US Secretary of State during WW1, and was uncle to the Dulles brothers. Conclude from that what you like.

  33. Mr Putin. For your efforts in Ukraine we award you a cloned replica of Stalin's cock. May you choke on it forever.

  34. Zelensky needs Biden to propose a settlement for the war to end. Biden can say - take the settlement or lose financial/military support. Zelenskyy can put the blame on Biden if any Ukrainians don't like it,. This way Zelensky can protect himself and stay in power, keep stability.

  35. Ah yes, the Robert Lansing Institute, a name we all know and trust. The article starts with a throw-out comment of "according to sources within russian military leadership" but that's the laziest attempt to source what is likely just outright speculation.

  36. When the Allies started crawling up Italy's boot their ruling class suddenly decided that they weren't fascists after all and locked up Mussolini. Hitler had to send in a mess of troops to rescue Douchee and secure the Italian political and military leadership with puppets.

  37. I guess Vlad is tired of his sycophant's failure/willingness to obey. Rasp Putin is practically a Bond villain at this point. But less competent.

  38. Seems like a good strategic opportunity for RU. Annexation of Belarus increases its borders and access to resources. Inherit the full military, huge ammunition stocks and access to new mobiks that are at arms reach of Moscow . It puts them at closer range to strike supply lines coming out of Poland and also creates the shortest path for land bridge to Moldova. It also fully encapsulates Ukraine from the North which could spread dread them thin if Russia opens up more lines across the North. I suspect this is old news and partly initiated the destruction of roads and bridges connecting Belarus and Ukraine. Annexation of Belarus would frame very well as a victory for Putin in terms of perceived benefit to national security

  39. This makes no sense: if they wanted to kill Luks, they would. No point in telling him ahead of time. It only makes sense as a warning to Luks, ….

  40. Belarus has a population of less than 10 million, compared to almost 150 million in the Russian federation… Putin must be really desperate for non Russians to die for him and for their weapons!

  41. A lot of comments suggesting Putin will run into resistance from either Lukashenko or the Belarusian army if he tries to co-opt their military to use against Ukraine.. what evidence is there for this?

  42. Lukashenko is a loyal puppet but his time is ruining out. In this neo Soviet Russia any puppet can easily be replaced and silenced.

  43. Maybe because they published an article saying Russia planned to murder Lukashenko and 24 hours later the Belarusian foreign minister died suddenly and mysteriously? Seems like a good enough reason.

  44. Look up the Robert Lansing Institute website. Then ask yourself if these people have any worthwhile information. One of them is a professor at Utah Valley College. Another is an "independent researcher".

  45. https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/z57gby/kremlin_plotting_to_liquidate_lukashenko_seize/ixxm663/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3

  46. Lukashenko will clearly give away for Putin in invading Ukraine, but I guess Poland will go full force on Belarus in that case.. if it’s true that Putin has plans on doing this shit the outcome will be a scenery of biblical contexts

  47. No, Poland isn’t going to invade Belarus. At most they’ll double up the border guards. The only thing biblical about Russia taking over Belarus is the biblically epic comedy that would ensue. Because it will tie up resources that Putin is already desperately short of, not to mention require opening up and operating an entire second logistics chain.

  48. Russia has officers embedded in Belarusian military. It's not likely they will resist a Russian annexation as these officers will seize control of the military.

  49. I’m not sure what the ultimate goal would be. Russia has already proven they can’t make a successful run on Kyiv. Even if that were his aim, the border is being strongly defended and more defenses are being added daily. Putin could try to co-opt the Belarusian army to fight in the east of Ukraine, but at that point he now risks having a large number of Belarusian army personnel surrendering or fighting for Ukraine instead.

  50. That would be a risky game for Putin as if it backfires then he would have another front to deal with. Seems its best for now to keep Luka on the leash and cut the throat later on when Ukraine has been subjugated

  51. Great!! Another 'impartial, free, voluntary election' to join the USSR....oops...RuSSia, just like the ecstatic Ukrainians that voted to become one with Putler.

  52. Ukraine should offer a bounty and asylum for every Iranian ''Advisor'' captured and turned over, seems like the perfect opportunity to humiliate Iran

  53. just when you thought putin couldn't possibly get any stupider, you find out he wants to start ANOTHER FUCKING WAR, AGAINST ONE OF HIS OWN ALLIES.

  54. Hmmm, seems like, in another post, I just mentioned Belarus Army involvement in this buildup to WW3. Kick putin!

  55. Gah, can’t these ultra wealthy oligarchs go and F off somewhere with their riches and just let the rest of the world exist without them? Seriously! If I had half of their wealth, I’d be off on a beach somewhere and not toying with the lives of millions of innocent people who just want to go about their days.

  56. They’re a self-selected group of people obsessed with power and wealth. They can’t just turn that off. The people who CAN turn that off are not as wealthy. But also, they are under the total control of Putin, he will kill then and their families if they don’t do what he says.

  57. Good. Let's see how that goes for everyone. I predict even more Russian defeats, however the Belarussian chips fall.

  58. I mean sure, start getting your ass kicked there too. Sun Tzu once said, “when getting your ass kicked on front, open another front.”

  59. I'm confused. I thought Lukashenko is Putin's adoring lapdog. Wouldn't Putin simply be able to ask to borrow the Belarusian military without a problem? What am I missing here that would be a rift with what I thought was Moscow's closest geographic ally?

  60. if you're living in belarus, maybe it's time to visit that distant part of a family in another country. just in case you wouldn't be able to visit her after the annexation.

  61. Well, not surprised at all. Can't wait to see how all this unravels. Lukashenko will say shit, should sided with Ukraine as he foams at the mouth and takes his last breath.

  62. I suppose in the scheme of things this is better than Russia staging false flag “terrorist attacks” on Belarus pretending to be Ukrainian to drum up anti Ukraine sentiment.

  63. Given how well Russian plans generally work out, here's how it's going to go: FSB assassinates Lukashenko. Putin says Zelenski did it because he is planning to invade Belarus. Putin orders Russian army to take control in order to maintain order and defend Belarus from Ukraine. He is expecting the Belarus military to come under Russian command without issue and for the civilians to cheer Russian troops. In reality, the Belarus military and civilians alike are appalled and angry. Belarus military attacks the Russian garrison and starts talks with Ukraine about unified anti-Russian command.

  64. This is way too prescriptive. I'm sure Putin would like to do this and the GRU will attempt to do something....I just don't think they have as much agency as they may think they have. And that's probably what worries them.

  65. Could be, Zas (possible successor of Lukashenka in case of his liquidation) was removed from the post of CSTO Secretary on November 23, maybe it's the preparations. Also FM of Belarus suddenly died recently.

  66. It's 60 000 useless troops. I don't see how this will help. It is known that the Belarus military and population have had enough of his bs and will not fight for Russia.

  67. Man, imagine if this happens. You spend your entire life sucking up to Putin and doing his bidding, only for him to turn around and betray you at his earliest convenience. Why does anyone on this planet still trust this guy?

  68. ...but even Belarus can't control the Belarusian army, what on earth would make anyone think that they could take it over to any effect? And if Russia did control the army of Belarus, so what? Belarus's military budget could nearly be covered by the microtransaction purchases people make in EA's Madden games. Their entire country produces half as much economic value as Apple.

  69. He thought Putin loved him. Putin loved no one but himself. Belarus won’t give into Putin: they will take out Russia forces first.

  70. How stupid Lukashenko has been...you just don't trust Putin even if you are his allies...because ultimately, he still want more power and influence over other countries to do what he wants to do.

  71. Lukashenko upon reading immediately ordered his aides to purchase every rose, candle and bottle of champagne in the country, in anticipation of being made love to by Putin.

  72. You know I knew something like this could happen given huge number of Russian troops stationed in Belarus. If "Nazi Ukraine" cannot be beaten then "Nazi Belarus" would offer an easier win, no NATO supplies and training involved.

  73. The question is, will the Belarus army fight? I thought I have seen several news items basically saying that they were against joining the war? Or at least against joining to fight for Russia?

  74. Time to help evacuate Lukashenko to Brest and prop him up to fight his Putin-appointed successor. Don't let the new regime consolidate, otherwise they'll deploy to Ukraine. Keep them busy fighting one another instead.

  75. Ukraine is too tough for Russia to swallow. They're looking for an easier target to bring into the glory of the motherland.

  76. When is the west going to declare full out war against Russia? Because Russia has plainly voiced it is at war with the west.

  77. The best way to force foreigners to fight is to kill their leader and then threaten them very loudly to either go to the meatgrinder in Ukraine or to try and hack their way through the mobiks sleeping in Belarus.

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