Putin’s escalation won’t damage Russia-China relations. Contrary to popular opinion, Xi’s views have not soured following the SCO summit.

  1. I can't recall a time when China's foreign relations were swayed by humanitarian issues. Why would this be different?

  2. The issue that people don't get is the West often ignores the same humanitarian issues when the abuses are made by their allies or against their enemies. The most recent and clear-cut case is Yemen, being bombed by S. Arabia with US providing logistical, intelligence and political support.

  3. Humanitarian issues? Should China have cut off trade with the West when they were busy engaging in campaigns of regime change? Should they be sanctioning the US and Saudis for their illegal invasion of Yemen and Syria?

  4. They’re not worried about humanitarian issues but the attack breathing new life into a dying NATO, increasing European defense budgets and letting the US redirect more resources to Asia. I’d agree their position hasn’t soured though, only because it was always sour - those things would have happened regardless as to whether Russia won or lost, so Russia likely didn’t tell China it was going to attack and planned to ask for forgiveness after a great and quick victory… that would still have revived NATO.

  5. Well which one is more effective at improving humans rights though ? Building infrastructure and increasing quality of life might make people more human and improve human right compliance in these regions.

  6. I don't blame them. I also hate it when Europeans and European Americans try to force their culture and Christianity on everyone else.

  7. All really good points on China’s position, which, as you said, have been pretty consistent. However, what outside media seems to have picked up on is inconsistencies between China’s external messaging (each of your well-summarized points) and internal messaging, i.e., what goes in state media (and what doesn’t), what is allowed from semi-independent media outlets, and what kinds of social media posts/ blogs are censored online. This shouldn’t need to be said, but the Chinese government has a lot of control over its internal media environment and shaping of public opinion, and the Chinese people know it. State media outlets even occasionally pen articles explaining why management of public opinion is so important. Many Chinese people agree.

  8. To be fair there is more to a country's geopolitical position than what they announce publicly as their position. This is seen all the time in that countries say one thing, but do another. I think it was fair of journalist to initially apply a standard of skepticism to the Chinese stated position.

  9. Submission Statement: The China-Russia alliance has not soured after Xi’s meeting with Putin at the SCO summit in Samarkand last week. China is simply continuing their balancing act of affirming Western culpability for the war whilst remaining seemingly neutral on the geopolitical stage. What has changed is the extent to which this ambiguity has been picked up by Western

  10. This title is complete misdirection. Most people don’t think that China’s going to turn on Russia and say “oh, the west was right, Russia is a bad guy”. The popular opinion is that China has seen how weak Russia is, and how unreliable they are, and that this will affect relations moving forward. And, as an example, we already saw this with China’s decision to build a railway through like 6 other countries instead of through Russia.

  11. Surely the Chinese have to be concerned about further escalation. Putin will make it harder and harder for himself to back down and keep power. With of course the ultimate risk that being Putin authorising the Nuclear weapons if he gets himself to a point where the mobilisation doesn’t work and he has no way out. Who knows where that would lead but I can’t imagine why China would consider it beneficial they are gaining more power and influence with the status quo as it is.

  12. China is probably going to need Russia around as a bulwark against America, especially on its troubled minority treatment, so it cannot eject Russia. The "weak Russia" endgame is a particularly naive sentiment in this regard, as while China would be in a better position to demand concessions, this would isolate themselves as the only party capable of standing up for themselves against Western opprobrium. What good would Primorsky Krai be if they lost Tibet or Xinjiang? With their perceived existence at risk, China fully believes it must commit to the Faustian Pact. Since China needs Russia around as the only potential partner they have against the power of the West, they will have to maintain the relationship with Russia however many bridges they must burn in the process.

  13. Ultimately China wants Russia as a vassal state to buffer the West; a bigger, scarier version of North Korea.

  14. I agree with this. The war currently works for China...at this level. It's great to have an isolated country stuck in what's shaping up to be a long-term stalemate selling resources to you on the cheap. But if it escalates further - into NATO countries, nuclear strikes, etc - and Russia gets labelled a terrorist state, for example, then China would be forced off the fence lest they get on the receiving end of sanctions themselves.

  15. The only benefit I can see for China is to find out how the west responds to Putin and look for weaknesses they can exploit when they try the same thing with Taiwan.

  16. I don't see why it would? I can't help but feel Chinese leaders feel some relief that the West is distracted by the war in Ukraine and all of its side-effects (having to restructure their fuel economy, inflation, weapon deals, war crimes, etc) away from their own internal problems.

  17. Not to mention in the end they get an isolated and weakened Russia that will become more and more dependent as the years go by

  18. Are they? The war in Ukraine has United Western leaders. It has also likely made them more sympathetic to Taiwan if China invades in the future. Yes it weakened Russia to the extent that it might end up a Chinese client state but arguably it's weakened Russia so much that it will be less useful to China in the long run

  19. China is trying to get countries that will inevitably drift away from Russia into it's own sphere of influence. Given how Russia has had it's military capabilities and reputation severely damaged, a lot of countries in the region are open to new partners be they the West, China or other smaller powers. Even a completely military useless Russia is useful to China since they provide raw resources to their industries and as buffer that ensures no hostile forces are in China's northern border.

  20. Pretty sure that Putin let Xi know what his plans weee going forward just to make sure there weren’t any issues. And even if there were, Putin ones across as a good partner for being upfront. My guess is he also strongly encouraged Xi to take Taiwan by force.

  21. Putin definitely didn't tell Xi he'd start a year long war that included destroying Chinese investments in Ukraine. He likely told Xi he'd topple the Ukrainian government within two weeks, which Xi was fine with. Now Russia didn't deliver, but instead reinvigorated the Western defense industry.

  22. China is still dependent on exports for nearly 1/3 of it's GDP, the end of globalization would be the end of the Chinese system. They depend on global flows of energy and raw materials that they lack the capability to go out and secure on their own. If those flows are disrupted or halted, the Chinese have few options.

  23. The end of globalization started in 2018 with the trade war. Rather than Europe fearing China, it's main threat of losing jobs is to the energy independent us, with lower worker protections and greater economic strength. You already see the beginnings of bidens reshoring program.

  24. China views this as meeting all of their geopolitical goals. In fact it might be their perfect desired outcome, rather than a victory by Russia.

  25. I am not entirely sure that Russia -China relations won't be damaged. A weak Russia can reinforce the role of China in Central Asia as the lead actor.

  26. This is propaganda from the Kremlin to try to reassure, but Xi Jinping's China is indeed distancing itself from Putin.

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