as far as I can remember I've never heard George talk about pages but only months, POVs, chapters, dates, years, I think that's his best way to say he's running out. I also warn people who have not understood how Martin writes that the missing pages could be the first of the book
Martin usually talks in manuscript pages so I think it's good. 500 manuscript pages might be 300 published pages, and the fact he's giving more specific estimates suggests he finally has an idea of how to actually get there.
It's good that he still respects us enough to give us updates. Alot of authors don't. But it's also not exactly bad, just should be taken with a grain of salt. It could take him 5 years to write those words.
Well he says he has 1100+ pages, and needs 400+ more. It took us 11 years to get here, so roughly 100 pages/year, so 4 more years. That's of course assuming this means pages of new material and that 1100 doesn't count the scrapped material from the end of Dance. In which case his rate is slower.
I think a big problem for GRRM has been to figure out a good way to get the story toward the end he thought of. The writing by itself is not something he struggles with a lot, but the small-ish decisions like how to best make character A do something that makes character B do something else that leads to the end GRRM figured out, that’s difficult.
My guess 2-4 years sounds about right. If he needs 500 more pages and he’s about 3/4 done I think he could have to book finished by 2026 at the LATEST (hopefully, with George we never know)
The fact that he is so accurate about his progress and gives precise page counts is, in my opinion, a good sign. Until recently, a typical update was just "Yes, yes I'm working on it".
In one of his updates a few months back he mentioned something about how the publisher would need to decide whether to split it into multiple physical books for release or not.
I’m pretty sure he’s said that Winds and Dream will be the longest books of the series so yeah that sounds about right. Also to be fair 2000 manuscript pages isn’t 2000 published pages
I'll take literally anything at this point. George could say he farted during the completion of a TWOW page and I'd be like, "TWOW IS COMING BOYS LET'S GOOOO"
I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe
I feel like these pages will be written quicker than the rest since the big hurdle was figuring out a lot of the plot points and now he just needs to wrap up the story.
Many people are misunderstanding the news, it does not mean that George has only written 400 or 500 pages, but that he has 400 or 500 pages left to finish.
On average sure but realistically it was nothing until the pandamic where he wrote ~800 pages (plus the 300 or so leftover gives us the 1100 he has done now). He probably spent the first year or so taking a break, then he consulted on (and wrote a lot of the early) game of thrones, wrote the dunk and egg novelas, fire and blood, worked on elden ring, all while travelling to conventions and events.
I mean, his books average a 1000 pages in the regular trade paperback, so he’s half way done with it? That’s not a good thing. But at least he has a framework and plan if he knows the page count? No surprises then?
Winds is going to be about 1500 pages or so we've been led to believe. And it does seem like he's had a productive few months on the book, he's talked about being near to wrapping up character arcs on his blog. It's a pity that he's going to rewrite some of it, but if he's at 500 pages left I'd call that the home stretch. Release date December 2029
At this point, I couldn't give a fuck about winds of winter. He needs to finish dream of spring to get me interested. That way the series is done, rather than in this weird middle ground limbo.
Comments locked because, once again, people struggle to operate with basic decency and respect for one another.
as far as I can remember I've never heard George talk about pages but only months, POVs, chapters, dates, years, I think that's his best way to say he's running out. I also warn people who have not understood how Martin writes that the missing pages could be the first of the book
Are you saying he is almost done?
Is this Good or Bad or Both?
Martin usually talks in manuscript pages so I think it's good. 500 manuscript pages might be 300 published pages, and the fact he's giving more specific estimates suggests he finally has an idea of how to actually get there.
When he had ~500 pages left of ADwD, he sped up and finished it in a year and a half.
i think it's good if only because he's talking about page count instead of wishy washy percentage estimates.
I mean it seems to be exactly what we expected he said he was 3/4ths of the way done like a month ago.
It's good that he still respects us enough to give us updates. Alot of authors don't. But it's also not exactly bad, just should be taken with a grain of salt. It could take him 5 years to write those words.
Well he says he has 1100+ pages, and needs 400+ more. It took us 11 years to get here, so roughly 100 pages/year, so 4 more years. That's of course assuming this means pages of new material and that 1100 doesn't count the scrapped material from the end of Dance. In which case his rate is slower.
Nothing short of "finished" is good at this point. It's been too long and too many broken promises otherwise.
It'll be another decade
Pretty bad imo, he is an under-estimator, not over-estimator. Those 500 could grow to be 4 novels
Its bad that he has that many pages left, but its good that…. No. No, its bad.. its all bad.
It's terrible. That means he's like half done. It's been over 10 fucking years.
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yes.
I think a big problem for GRRM has been to figure out a good way to get the story toward the end he thought of. The writing by itself is not something he struggles with a lot, but the small-ish decisions like how to best make character A do something that makes character B do something else that leads to the end GRRM figured out, that’s difficult.
i think that maybe, hopefully, by having done most of the rest of the book, he's figured this out. 2024 seems realistic
And being positive, how long will it take to write all those pages?
Optimistically, 12-18 months. Realistically, more like 2 years. Based on this update I think winter of 24-25 is a good guess for a release
Being positive? I’d say 2+ years to write, longer to edit and publish. 2025 release date.
Another 1.5 years to write, 6 months for editing, marketing and printing.
My guess 2-4 years sounds about right. If he needs 500 more pages and he’s about 3/4 done I think he could have to book finished by 2026 at the LATEST (hopefully, with George we never know)
The fact that he is so accurate about his progress and gives precise page counts is, in my opinion, a good sign. Until recently, a typical update was just "Yes, yes I'm working on it".
If 400-500 manuscript pages is 225-300 published pages, then that's the equivalent of 15-20 chapters.
I agree. Concrete numbers is a very good thing and combined with the amount of good updates recently I have some hope it’s only a few years away
Wasn't he like 75% done a few months ago? Is he writing a 2000 page long book?
Honestly I think he is
In one of his updates a few months back he mentioned something about how the publisher would need to decide whether to split it into multiple physical books for release or not.
I’m pretty sure he’s said that Winds and Dream will be the longest books of the series so yeah that sounds about right. Also to be fair 2000 manuscript pages isn’t 2000 published pages
Well, for one, he said himself multiple times TWoW would be the longest book in the series, so yeah maybe.
He is talking in manuscript pages.
Iirc he said this would be as big as it could be without splitting into two books
So just a few lunch descriptions left
My question is how will this be published? Feast and Dance were massive books, maybe Winds will have to be split into 2 volumes?
They better be released simultaneously, another AFFC/ADWD situation will finish me off
They could do the same thing like the Stormlight archive, where I live you could rarely find a complete book, it is usually split in two.
This book is either 5k pages long, or this man has rewritten it 10x
Only 10x? That’s cute
This information comes from a comedy skit though, right? Are we sure it can be taken seriously?
Yes.
I'll take literally anything at this point. George could say he farted during the completion of a TWOW page and I'd be like, "TWOW IS COMING BOYS LET'S GOOOO"
That's an insane number if you look at other books, hell some of my history books are smaller than that lol.
Fall 2023 release let's gooooo
Mid 2025 most likely. But still let's gooo
His author homies are ripping him apart lmao
They're grouping on our poor ol George.
Sigh
My mans counting pages like I did words in a high school essay.
I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe
Take your time dude! It’s not like you’ve got a fervent fan base that’s been desperately waiting for the next book for a decade or so.
This is all meaningless, of course. He said he thought he was 3 months away - how many years ago was that? I think 7 years now.
If this was Stephen King he'd be done tomorrow
I feel like these pages will be written quicker than the rest since the big hurdle was figuring out a lot of the plot points and now he just needs to wrap up the story.
Lmao at all the hopeful comments here. If I had a nickel for every time I read, "I'll take that as a good sign"...
So... 33%? That's old news isn't it?
Preston said as much but everyone dogpiled him
Many people are misunderstanding the news, it does not mean that George has only written 400 or 500 pages, but that he has 400 or 500 pages left to finish.
ok
Isn't that like half of ASOS?
That's nice, George. Not having any expectations whatsoever.
He’s probably been finished with the book and is just fuckin with people
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I’m 8 years past giving a damn.
Yet here you are.
I definitely just made a very dissatisfied, angry, impatient, dismayed noise between a groan and snort reading this.
So he's approximately 2/3 of the way done....... after over a decade..... what a complete joke
This means he’s written approximately 50 words per year since aDwD released, on average.
On average sure but realistically it was nothing until the pandamic where he wrote ~800 pages (plus the 300 or so leftover gives us the 1100 he has done now). He probably spent the first year or so taking a break, then he consulted on (and wrote a lot of the early) game of thrones, wrote the dunk and egg novelas, fire and blood, worked on elden ring, all while travelling to conventions and events.
At this point? I no longer care
This subreddit is filled with users who regularly comment this, yet for some reason, they continue doing it.
Until i get the book into my Hands idc,perhaps i wont even care at that moment
But you still visit this subreddit and continue to participate 😊
I mean, his books average a 1000 pages in the regular trade paperback, so he’s half way done with it? That’s not a good thing. But at least he has a framework and plan if he knows the page count? No surprises then?
Winds is going to be about 1500 pages or so we've been led to believe. And it does seem like he's had a productive few months on the book, he's talked about being near to wrapping up character arcs on his blog. It's a pity that he's going to rewrite some of it, but if he's at 500 pages left I'd call that the home stretch. Release date December 2029
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Yeah, sure...
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At this point, I couldn't give a fuck about winds of winter. He needs to finish dream of spring to get me interested. That way the series is done, rather than in this weird middle ground limbo.
This book is never going to happen. He has lost interest. It’s a shame because it’s a great story, but he has moved on.
Did george lise a lot of weight? I hope that‘s not a bad sign
My guess we’ll never get book 7.
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Welcome to
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https://i.imgur.com/BwNdjs0.gifv
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