George R.R. Martin has 400 or 500 pages to go on The Winds of Winter

  1. Comments locked because, once again, people struggle to operate with basic decency and respect for one another.

  2. as far as I can remember I've never heard George talk about pages but only months, POVs, chapters, dates, years, I think that's his best way to say he's running out. I also warn people who have not understood how Martin writes that the missing pages could be the first of the book

  3. Martin usually talks in manuscript pages so I think it's good. 500 manuscript pages might be 300 published pages, and the fact he's giving more specific estimates suggests he finally has an idea of how to actually get there.

  4. i think it's good if only because he's talking about page count instead of wishy washy percentage estimates.

  5. It's good that he still respects us enough to give us updates. Alot of authors don't. But it's also not exactly bad, just should be taken with a grain of salt. It could take him 5 years to write those words.

  6. Well he says he has 1100+ pages, and needs 400+ more. It took us 11 years to get here, so roughly 100 pages/year, so 4 more years. That's of course assuming this means pages of new material and that 1100 doesn't count the scrapped material from the end of Dance. In which case his rate is slower.

  7. Nothing short of "finished" is good at this point. It's been too long and too many broken promises otherwise.

  8. Pretty bad imo, he is an under-estimator, not over-estimator. Those 500 could grow to be 4 novels

  9. I think a big problem for GRRM has been to figure out a good way to get the story toward the end he thought of. The writing by itself is not something he struggles with a lot, but the small-ish decisions like how to best make character A do something that makes character B do something else that leads to the end GRRM figured out, that’s difficult.

  10. i think that maybe, hopefully, by having done most of the rest of the book, he's figured this out. 2024 seems realistic

  11. Optimistically, 12-18 months. Realistically, more like 2 years. Based on this update I think winter of 24-25 is a good guess for a release

  12. My guess 2-4 years sounds about right. If he needs 500 more pages and he’s about 3/4 done I think he could have to book finished by 2026 at the LATEST (hopefully, with George we never know)

  13. The fact that he is so accurate about his progress and gives precise page counts is, in my opinion, a good sign. Until recently, a typical update was just "Yes, yes I'm working on it".

  14. I agree. Concrete numbers is a very good thing and combined with the amount of good updates recently I have some hope it’s only a few years away

  15. In one of his updates a few months back he mentioned something about how the publisher would need to decide whether to split it into multiple physical books for release or not.

  16. I’m pretty sure he’s said that Winds and Dream will be the longest books of the series so yeah that sounds about right. Also to be fair 2000 manuscript pages isn’t 2000 published pages

  17. My question is how will this be published? Feast and Dance were massive books, maybe Winds will have to be split into 2 volumes?

  18. They could do the same thing like the Stormlight archive, where I live you could rarely find a complete book, it is usually split in two.

  19. I'll take literally anything at this point. George could say he farted during the completion of a TWOW page and I'd be like, "TWOW IS COMING BOYS LET'S GOOOO"

  20. I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe I will not begin to believe

  21. Take your time dude! It’s not like you’ve got a fervent fan base that’s been desperately waiting for the next book for a decade or so.

  22. This is all meaningless, of course. He said he thought he was 3 months away - how many years ago was that? I think 7 years now.

  23. I feel like these pages will be written quicker than the rest since the big hurdle was figuring out a lot of the plot points and now he just needs to wrap up the story.

  24. Lmao at all the hopeful comments here. If I had a nickel for every time I read, "I'll take that as a good sign"...

  25. Many people are misunderstanding the news, it does not mean that George has only written 400 or 500 pages, but that he has 400 or 500 pages left to finish.

  26. I definitely just made a very dissatisfied, angry, impatient, dismayed noise between a groan and snort reading this.

  27. On average sure but realistically it was nothing until the pandamic where he wrote ~800 pages (plus the 300 or so leftover gives us the 1100 he has done now). He probably spent the first year or so taking a break, then he consulted on (and wrote a lot of the early) game of thrones, wrote the dunk and egg novelas, fire and blood, worked on elden ring, all while travelling to conventions and events.

  28. This subreddit is filled with users who regularly comment this, yet for some reason, they continue doing it.

  29. I mean, his books average a 1000 pages in the regular trade paperback, so he’s half way done with it? That’s not a good thing. But at least he has a framework and plan if he knows the page count? No surprises then?

  30. Winds is going to be about 1500 pages or so we've been led to believe. And it does seem like he's had a productive few months on the book, he's talked about being near to wrapping up character arcs on his blog. It's a pity that he's going to rewrite some of it, but if he's at 500 pages left I'd call that the home stretch. Release date December 2029

  31. At this point, I couldn't give a fuck about winds of winter. He needs to finish dream of spring to get me interested. That way the series is done, rather than in this weird middle ground limbo.

  32. This book is never going to happen. He has lost interest. It’s a shame because it’s a great story, but he has moved on.

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