Anything with 7 is basically impossible. Even if all prices remained identical this month, the CPI would be 7.97. Gas prices went up. Rent didn't go down.
I had thought about going this route too, but figured that unless the number is better than expected, the planned rate hike will happen regardless. So the only way nov 2 will somehow be worse than expected is if CPI tomorrow is worse than expected.
They expire Friday and you just think some market manipulator is looking at this conversations deciding when to pull the wool over your eyes. You are not fooling anyone. Your future expires Friday my friend.
I'm going to be bold and predict 8.1%, the consensus view. Still high enough for the Fed to hike to 4.25 at least. However I'm positioned against my own prediction... because I'm an idiot.
CPI numbers are dishonest. And so are many people who give out govt data. But people believe them for whatever reason. It's reasonable to believe real inflation is probably 20% since the "Pandemic."
Inflation tends to get stickier the longer it goes. I don’t think the drop in oil is going to have that much of an impact because inflation has been running rampant for too long and the fed waited too long to act. They also haven’t acted quick enough with large enough increases. My bet is at least 8.5 CPI. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it as high as 9. Market is dumping tomorrow. Pepsi beat expectations on earnings today because they offer cheap snacks. People are shifting spending patterns to less healthy food because they can’t afford more expensive ones. That’s why Pepsi is a defensive stock and does well in downturns.
Considering the magnitude of energy price increases this year, a drop in oil prices will definitely have an effect on headline CPI, despite how long inflation has been running rampant. This did happen in September.
I also think cpi will be hot and will bring market down Thursday and Friday. The Fed minutes were just released and basically says the fed is going to continue raising because they believe it is better to over do it than to not do enough. But if the market is down a decent amount Thursday and Friday I will look to buy Friday afternoon .
But if everyone already thinks this then it’s already priced in right? So maybe it rally’s like it did after the June CPI came in hot at a 40 year high of 8.6. The market is regarded
I’m worried it will pump for no other reason aside from reading people on this sub saying it won’t dump. Unless jobless claims and cpi are really good I don’t think we pump. I don’t know. I’m holding puts for november and hedged with a couple calls
I think there are probably too many puts bought in the market that a slightly hotter CPI won’t matter much. The PPI coming in slightly hot and doing nothing confirmed this for me today.
This. The PPI is a leading indicator for CPI, and its release today also removed possible negative surprises. If market didn't dump today, it will probably not dump tomorrow. Most likely a flat day, or slightly green tomorrow.
I don’t even know why the market is so focused on CPI… the FED says they will hike till the see signs that inflation is coming down.They are clear with their message …. So why is he Market behaving that they don’t know the FEDS move ? If CPI comes in lower , FED will still hike 75 bps point. If the market get this , it will be smooth sailing but of course there are big banks and Wallstreet interest also so they have to spread panic and fear to make money on the downside
This is probably the most bullish case, I don’t buy that the market hasn’t priced in a .75 hike in November. I think it just needs to confirm inflation has peaked. 7.9-8.0 it will rally, stocks have been severely devalued and some small caps have already priced in a recession.
I don’t think the consumer price index tomorrow is going to be lower . Just to make a Point the opec reduce the production of petroleum affecting everything and any country in the world specially the USA which it’s been raising interest rate to lower inflación but now is very obvious . Consumers are paying more for basic consuming products. At least is going to be 8.6 and federal reserve has no option to keep increasing rates.
The market is designed to trick the most people possible, right? I think CPI will come in hot and markets will rally hard. Short covering, momentum, and everyone getting caught off guard will lead to two day rally that leads to a huge rally next week.
It will 100% dump. SPX down 2-3% is my guess. It’s a certainty core CPI will be higher than expected. Cleveland Fed is already telling us this in their tracker. Market shouldn’t sell off as it’s an already known but it will anyways
I think listening to the Fed is reading tea leaves at this point. They have been consistently wishy washy, so any casting of strength is hard to discern. Frankly they have lost credibility, so you cannot blame people for questioning the Fed. I would be cautious of those constantly harping about "JPow said this and he is going to inflict pain, blah, blah, blah". So far the actions have been luke warm in comparison to the inflation landscape that has developed over the last two years.
You’re better off doing a strangle with a short dated PUT and a long dated CALL ATM. With VIX high, Puts are over priced so any down turn will be short lived with 10/21 expiry around the corner and PUTS needing to reposition. We’re so for a bounce so any flat to negative CPI and market is bound to head upwards, path of least resistance.
I’m betting calls, unless cpi comes in hotter than last month I don’t see a dump. As much pain as they inflicted to us the past 2 months I don’t see how inflation doesn’t come down atleast a little
I bought some puts. I think it’s a gamble, market could consolidate around this 52 week low and rally in the coming days. I bought like 25k of SPY 360 11/11, gives me a little time if there’s a rally for people to sell the rally. That’s happened literally every rally the past several months. Really it’s a win win, I’ll either make money or pay less taxes. 😂
After the shenanigans today w/ PPI and FOMC moments and then a it grinding theta all day, I've gone cash. I sold my puts for the profit that I'd accumulated over Monday and Tuesday. I'm no longer confident in what will happen tomorrow.
Gas decreasing in price was the only thing that was making cpi numbers look okay tomorrow is going to be a disaster we just don't know if it's priced in yet?
The most over valued and rate sensitive sector is tech. I’m all in on TECS an inverse bear ETF for the TEC sector. If it crashes I going to the fucking noon.
I bet on a drop, but all the doom and gloom so far end of day today about how high cpi will be, unless it's staggeringly high we going to be green cuz these regards will be like "ohh look, only 8.4%, that's not bad, everyone was saying 337%, that's not bad at all. Bottom is in!".
Eh. Vix 34? Algos have been buying that. I don't really see any edge in trying to guess tomorrow. Ideally it would be nice to have a nice Vix Spike above 40 where market makers have to scramble to cover positions. That would be buyable for the short-term trade
If you think she will dump, she will pump
Way she goes, sometimes she goes, sometimes she doesn’t. Way she goes
It what if I feel she will pump, that mean it will Shirley dump
Sometime she just lays there no matter how hard you pump.
U nailed it, shit pump confirmed
Misdirection 101
I bought puts so Calls will definitely print. I’m literally always wrong
Thank you for your sacrifice. I have TQQQ so parlaying for the e best
neither will print, tomorrow the birthing of a new derivative: the pow pow
OP bought puts and you bought calls, I guess I will sell stradles tomorrow
Hoping the move is a non-event 😬😳
I bought a strangle with a 35 delta, hopefully set for either direction.
Tomorrow spy is flat and all option buyers get iv crushed
I refuse to believe this - surely no one has hedged the past few weeks against the projected numbers. It’s a complete mystery until they are released.
8.2% is the nowcast prediction.
Anything with 7 is basically impossible. Even if all prices remained identical this month, the CPI would be 7.97. Gas prices went up. Rent didn't go down.
A 9 would be beautiful. But I doubt we will see that.
Fuck it, I bought calls. I always pick the wrong direction anyways.
Remind me! 24hrs
Remind me! 24 hrs
RemindMe! 17 hours
Remind me! 15 hrs
You have read my mind. I picked calls too.
It will probably do both! Dump, bounce at 350, dump again, break through support to hell and rebound again! Everybody’s a winner! Yay!
One of us will win
Remind me! 19 hrs
Calls on SQQQ!?
yeah I think it will be same or lilttle lower than last time 8 or 7.8
I’m positioned for a big dump, but my puts and long enough dated that I can wait until Nov 2 if it somehow goes up
I had thought about going this route too, but figured that unless the number is better than expected, the planned rate hike will happen regardless. So the only way nov 2 will somehow be worse than expected is if CPI tomorrow is worse than expected.
They expire Friday and you just think some market manipulator is looking at this conversations deciding when to pull the wool over your eyes. You are not fooling anyone. Your future expires Friday my friend.
If it goes down it’ll prolly keep going down tho
Need to do something because this sideways action is bs
calm before the storm
Downwards sideways lol
I think it will pump
Everyone and their mother thinks the market will dump tomorrow. You know what that means…
*Googling how much I can make as an Uber driver
yeah it will rise
Whatever it is, it’s a lie and not even close to the real number. Just rip off the bandaid you sluts
I feel this as well
CPI will definitely be a number tomorrow. I guarantee it.
Past performance does not guarantee future!!!
higher than 6 lower than 10
CPI coming in at 8.5
We’re going down big if it comes in 8.5
8.5 we dumping hard
My personal estimate is at 8.4
70% that Market will dump tomorrow and Friday probably even deeper
8.3% not great, not terrible.
lol things are so fucked that 8.3% is not terrible
Nice inflation you got over there- Zimbabwe
Pray for all fu..ng gods in whole universe that it's 8.3%
Nice reference
They gave you that numbers because It’s the highest the gauge reads
It’s not 8.3, it’s 15,000
Not scary so, a little ephemeral pump.
I'm going to be bold and predict 8.1%, the consensus view. Still high enough for the Fed to hike to 4.25 at least. However I'm positioned against my own prediction... because I'm an idiot.
Me 1 year ago:
Which is actually really smart. What is this? Reverse reverse reversed psychology?
yeah it will be around 8.1
8.4 $SQQQ
CPI numbers are dishonest. And so are many people who give out govt data. But people believe them for whatever reason. It's reasonable to believe real inflation is probably 20% since the "Pandemic."
Yup I’m thinking inflation is 25-18% right now
so regarded. agree closer to 20%, but it's spelled 'plandemic'
hope your butthole is ready either way
Keep it puckered
Always
All I know for sure is that I will take a dump tomorrow, not sure about the market though
9% back to 2007 levels
How many to 2008 and 2009?
I predict all shit will go down, unless you buy puts.
The amount of confidence people have on their opinions here.
What, redditors can't predict delicate financial data with no access to any kind of methodology?
Feel it in my bone[s]
Inflation tends to get stickier the longer it goes. I don’t think the drop in oil is going to have that much of an impact because inflation has been running rampant for too long and the fed waited too long to act. They also haven’t acted quick enough with large enough increases. My bet is at least 8.5 CPI. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it as high as 9. Market is dumping tomorrow. Pepsi beat expectations on earnings today because they offer cheap snacks. People are shifting spending patterns to less healthy food because they can’t afford more expensive ones. That’s why Pepsi is a defensive stock and does well in downturns.
Considering the magnitude of energy price increases this year, a drop in oil prices will definitely have an effect on headline CPI, despite how long inflation has been running rampant. This did happen in September.
I also think cpi will be hot and will bring market down Thursday and Friday. The Fed minutes were just released and basically says the fed is going to continue raising because they believe it is better to over do it than to not do enough. But if the market is down a decent amount Thursday and Friday I will look to buy Friday afternoon .
Agreed, idk why market didn’t dump after fed minutes. I think delayed till tomorrow when the big boys reset their hedges
But if everyone already thinks this then it’s already priced in right? So maybe it rally’s like it did after the June CPI came in hot at a 40 year high of 8.6. The market is regarded
No clue.
Gas at the peak was 4.15 here. Now it is 3.10.
I’m worried it will pump for no other reason aside from reading people on this sub saying it won’t dump. Unless jobless claims and cpi are really good I don’t think we pump. I don’t know. I’m holding puts for november and hedged with a couple calls
The smart move would be a strangle. But then the market will move flat 🤣
I have both calls and puts on spy as close to atm as I could afford, and I’ll be dumping one on open and riding the other out im sure…
the market seems to price in all the bearishness to flat or up CPI. market currently expects 75bps.
I think CPI gonna be 8.6 - 9.1 again.............Here we come 340!!!!!!!
Everyone will get fucked tmrw because it will trade flat. Algos run the world
I think there are probably too many puts bought in the market that a slightly hotter CPI won’t matter much. The PPI coming in slightly hot and doing nothing confirmed this for me today.
This. The PPI is a leading indicator for CPI, and its release today also removed possible negative surprises. If market didn't dump today, it will probably not dump tomorrow. Most likely a flat day, or slightly green tomorrow.
I’m calling a nothingburger here, I think folks expect it to stay high until next year.
I don’t even know why the market is so focused on CPI… the FED says they will hike till the see signs that inflation is coming down.They are clear with their message …. So why is he Market behaving that they don’t know the FEDS move ? If CPI comes in lower , FED will still hike 75 bps point. If the market get this , it will be smooth sailing but of course there are big banks and Wallstreet interest also so they have to spread panic and fear to make money on the downside
Because what Powell says carries no weight. How many times did he say inflation is transitory?
Just as likely they were spreading panic and fear for the big players to buy the dip before ripping into an election to favor the Dems.
Wherever hope and the unknown mix is where the regards of this sub will hoard together and speculate
This is probably the most bullish case, I don’t buy that the market hasn’t priced in a .75 hike in November. I think it just needs to confirm inflation has peaked. 7.9-8.0 it will rally, stocks have been severely devalued and some small caps have already priced in a recession.
I'm new here but so far I love all the conversations .
Honestly it's an oasis compared to the rest of the internet, people are actually funny and not offend 24/7
SPXS, SOXS
Sqqq good luck regards
Duck it, 10%
Any direction other than chop would be great! But I'm seeing SPX to 3400 and then to 3300... But what the hell do I know?
Shorting QQQ
I don’t think the consumer price index tomorrow is going to be lower . Just to make a Point the opec reduce the production of petroleum affecting everything and any country in the world specially the USA which it’s been raising interest rate to lower inflación but now is very obvious . Consumers are paying more for basic consuming products. At least is going to be 8.6 and federal reserve has no option to keep increasing rates.
The market is designed to trick the most people possible, right? I think CPI will come in hot and markets will rally hard. Short covering, momentum, and everyone getting caught off guard will lead to two day rally that leads to a huge rally next week.
Sqqq
SQQQ
yolo’d into sqqq, fingers crossed. figure i can only lose so much unlike my past experiences with options
Nah. I think it'll be .2 higher than expected. Nothing has changed yet
It will 100% dump. SPX down 2-3% is my guess. It’s a certainty core CPI will be higher than expected. Cleveland Fed is already telling us this in their tracker. Market shouldn’t sell off as it’s an already known but it will anyways
[удалено]
That'd be sweet.
7.9%
It’s over 9,000!!!
The market will dump hard tmr after a higher than expected cpi
But if everyone already thinks this then it’s already priced in right?
I think listening to the Fed is reading tea leaves at this point. They have been consistently wishy washy, so any casting of strength is hard to discern. Frankly they have lost credibility, so you cannot blame people for questioning the Fed. I would be cautious of those constantly harping about "JPow said this and he is going to inflict pain, blah, blah, blah". So far the actions have been luke warm in comparison to the inflation landscape that has developed over the last two years.
Oh it will definitely be over 8.3%
You’re better off doing a strangle with a short dated PUT and a long dated CALL ATM. With VIX high, Puts are over priced so any down turn will be short lived with 10/21 expiry around the corner and PUTS needing to reposition. We’re so for a bounce so any flat to negative CPI and market is bound to head upwards, path of least resistance.
This!
7.9
The dump will be faster then you can make it to the toilet after a night of drinking and eating taco bell.
Remember what happened when cpi was 9.1? It was a bear market rally lmao.
When? This past June?
Nah watch it’s gonna be on target and the market will push SPY to 9,001
The leak has it at 8.7% so let’s see
What leak?
Flat
It will always soak out the soal of retail. lel.
6.9%
Nice
6.9%
SPXS
69%
I actually think market is planning CPI above 9% with Rent this time around.
I’m long Fridays SPY $363 calls. Bought at close. 99.999999% chance I’m wrong. So congrats to the shorts in advance. 👍🏻
I’m betting calls, unless cpi comes in hotter than last month I don’t see a dump. As much pain as they inflicted to us the past 2 months I don’t see how inflation doesn’t come down atleast a little
Long on it ☺️
8.62%
Why did PPI come out before the CPI? Feel like they trying the insight selling. Probably dead wrong but I think we rally tomorrow.
Forecast is 8.1 according to
Possible huge crash, because today was a calm day. I've got my SPY Dec 30 '22 $330 Put
I bought some puts. I think it’s a gamble, market could consolidate around this 52 week low and rally in the coming days. I bought like 25k of SPY 360 11/11, gives me a little time if there’s a rally for people to sell the rally. That’s happened literally every rally the past several months. Really it’s a win win, I’ll either make money or pay less taxes. 😂
Whats the point in predicting? Stonks go down Stonks go up. Thats all u need to know
Tomorrow will not be good
Lol for me or for the market?
Left is right, up is down. I’m calling green dildos tomorrow.
8.1%
420.69%
I am nowcasting it. 8.1% and 0.3% mom
imo too soon for puts. puts next month when the bad news of this month is reflected in the numbers - good luck
I bought puts and calls so I'll only get like halfway fucked. My favorite kind of fucked.
everyone thinks we will either pump or dump so the market will trade sideways when the number comes in right on the estimate
Like green on roulette! 😂
After the shenanigans today w/ PPI and FOMC moments and then a it grinding theta all day, I've gone cash. I sold my puts for the profit that I'd accumulated over Monday and Tuesday. I'm no longer confident in what will happen tomorrow.
I’m always wrong so I bought puts. If I’m wrong my stocks won’t get pummeled and if I’m right it will print. I will win one way or the other
I bought a few upside SPX butterflies so….. just in case
Yes. Yes it will.
Tomorrow 1st hours opening dump later pump.
Gas decreasing in price was the only thing that was making cpi numbers look okay tomorrow is going to be a disaster we just don't know if it's priced in yet?
I got forced out of playing this CPI. Moved from fidelity to TD. Fidelitys app sucks.
I'm doing many rain dances and god prayers tonight to have a market pump tomorrow. Wish me luck everyone. CPI: 8.3%
The most over valued and rate sensitive sector is tech. I’m all in on TECS an inverse bear ETF for the TEC sector. If it crashes I going to the fucking noon.
I have puts and calls on QQQ
I bet on a drop, but all the doom and gloom so far end of day today about how high cpi will be, unless it's staggeringly high we going to be green cuz these regards will be like "ohh look, only 8.4%, that's not bad, everyone was saying 337%, that's not bad at all. Bottom is in!".
Eh. Vix 34? Algos have been buying that. I don't really see any edge in trying to guess tomorrow. Ideally it would be nice to have a nice Vix Spike above 40 where market makers have to scramble to cover positions. That would be buyable for the short-term trade
Hell yes!!! Our puts will yield to us a foundation of golden bricks to the promise land!!
DRV is been on a great run lately and definitely will continue if inflation comes in hott!
50.5
If people panic sell because of record low unemployment, people are going to panic sell no matter what cpi data says.
It will do exactly what it do baby
What happens when you tape buttered bread to a cat? That’s what will happen tomorrow
10%
Dump In the Taco Bell bathroom 🚽
It'll be hot but we finna rally off of this lol
Market will crater on the open from CPI report. Regards with puts don't take profits and the market finds a bid with that out of the way.
Whatever spy is nuked or pumped, just buy puts for friday
8.2
If it's better than expected we are going to get a ferocious rally all day long. If it's as expected or worse, selling.
7.9%
Over 65K on the OI for SPY 350p expiring this Friday so we shall see.
I have a bet on 8.5% headline 6.9% core CPI
It should go up but expect it to go down
Just $Grimace 🚀🚀🚀
Let’s go 7.9 🔥
Everyone already knows inflation is high. They don't tell us anything new tomorrow.
it will be around 8, similar to last, s&p will rise a little bit not too much
Remind me! 24hrs
teach me everyone how to yolo everything on put-calls
The market is going up tomorrow as the consensus, for now, is that we'll see lower CPI numbers tomorrow.