CPI Predictions?

  1. I refuse to believe this - surely no one has hedged the past few weeks against the projected numbers. It’s a complete mystery until they are released.

  2. Anything with 7 is basically impossible. Even if all prices remained identical this month, the CPI would be 7.97. Gas prices went up. Rent didn't go down.

  3. I’m positioned for a big dump, but my puts and long enough dated that I can wait until Nov 2 if it somehow goes up

  4. I had thought about going this route too, but figured that unless the number is better than expected, the planned rate hike will happen regardless. So the only way nov 2 will somehow be worse than expected is if CPI tomorrow is worse than expected.

  5. They expire Friday and you just think some market manipulator is looking at this conversations deciding when to pull the wool over your eyes. You are not fooling anyone. Your future expires Friday my friend.

  6. I'm going to be bold and predict 8.1%, the consensus view. Still high enough for the Fed to hike to 4.25 at least. However I'm positioned against my own prediction... because I'm an idiot.

  7. CPI numbers are dishonest. And so are many people who give out govt data. But people believe them for whatever reason. It's reasonable to believe real inflation is probably 20% since the "Pandemic."

  8. Inflation tends to get stickier the longer it goes. I don’t think the drop in oil is going to have that much of an impact because inflation has been running rampant for too long and the fed waited too long to act. They also haven’t acted quick enough with large enough increases. My bet is at least 8.5 CPI. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it as high as 9. Market is dumping tomorrow. Pepsi beat expectations on earnings today because they offer cheap snacks. People are shifting spending patterns to less healthy food because they can’t afford more expensive ones. That’s why Pepsi is a defensive stock and does well in downturns.

  9. Considering the magnitude of energy price increases this year, a drop in oil prices will definitely have an effect on headline CPI, despite how long inflation has been running rampant. This did happen in September.

  10. I also think cpi will be hot and will bring market down Thursday and Friday. The Fed minutes were just released and basically says the fed is going to continue raising because they believe it is better to over do it than to not do enough. But if the market is down a decent amount Thursday and Friday I will look to buy Friday afternoon .

  11. But if everyone already thinks this then it’s already priced in right? So maybe it rally’s like it did after the June CPI came in hot at a 40 year high of 8.6. The market is regarded

  12. I’m worried it will pump for no other reason aside from reading people on this sub saying it won’t dump. Unless jobless claims and cpi are really good I don’t think we pump. I don’t know. I’m holding puts for november and hedged with a couple calls

  13. I have both calls and puts on spy as close to atm as I could afford, and I’ll be dumping one on open and riding the other out im sure…

  14. the market seems to price in all the bearishness to flat or up CPI. market currently expects 75bps.

  15. I think there are probably too many puts bought in the market that a slightly hotter CPI won’t matter much. The PPI coming in slightly hot and doing nothing confirmed this for me today.

  16. This. The PPI is a leading indicator for CPI, and its release today also removed possible negative surprises. If market didn't dump today, it will probably not dump tomorrow. Most likely a flat day, or slightly green tomorrow.

  17. I don’t even know why the market is so focused on CPI… the FED says they will hike till the see signs that inflation is coming down.They are clear with their message …. So why is he Market behaving that they don’t know the FEDS move ? If CPI comes in lower , FED will still hike 75 bps point. If the market get this , it will be smooth sailing but of course there are big banks and Wallstreet interest also so they have to spread panic and fear to make money on the downside

  18. Just as likely they were spreading panic and fear for the big players to buy the dip before ripping into an election to favor the Dems.

  19. This is probably the most bullish case, I don’t buy that the market hasn’t priced in a .75 hike in November. I think it just needs to confirm inflation has peaked. 7.9-8.0 it will rally, stocks have been severely devalued and some small caps have already priced in a recession.

  20. I don’t think the consumer price index tomorrow is going to be lower . Just to make a Point the opec reduce the production of petroleum affecting everything and any country in the world specially the USA which it’s been raising interest rate to lower inflación but now is very obvious . Consumers are paying more for basic consuming products. At least is going to be 8.6 and federal reserve has no option to keep increasing rates.

  21. The market is designed to trick the most people possible, right? I think CPI will come in hot and markets will rally hard. Short covering, momentum, and everyone getting caught off guard will lead to two day rally that leads to a huge rally next week.

  22. It will 100% dump. SPX down 2-3% is my guess. It’s a certainty core CPI will be higher than expected. Cleveland Fed is already telling us this in their tracker. Market shouldn’t sell off as it’s an already known but it will anyways

  23. I think listening to the Fed is reading tea leaves at this point. They have been consistently wishy washy, so any casting of strength is hard to discern. Frankly they have lost credibility, so you cannot blame people for questioning the Fed. I would be cautious of those constantly harping about "JPow said this and he is going to inflict pain, blah, blah, blah". So far the actions have been luke warm in comparison to the inflation landscape that has developed over the last two years.

  24. You’re better off doing a strangle with a short dated PUT and a long dated CALL ATM. With VIX high, Puts are over priced so any down turn will be short lived with 10/21 expiry around the corner and PUTS needing to reposition. We’re so for a bounce so any flat to negative CPI and market is bound to head upwards, path of least resistance.

  25. I’m long Fridays SPY $363 calls. Bought at close. 99.999999% chance I’m wrong. So congrats to the shorts in advance. 👍🏻

  26. I’m betting calls, unless cpi comes in hotter than last month I don’t see a dump. As much pain as they inflicted to us the past 2 months I don’t see how inflation doesn’t come down atleast a little

  27. Why did PPI come out before the CPI? Feel like they trying the insight selling. Probably dead wrong but I think we rally tomorrow.

  28. I bought some puts. I think it’s a gamble, market could consolidate around this 52 week low and rally in the coming days. I bought like 25k of SPY 360 11/11, gives me a little time if there’s a rally for people to sell the rally. That’s happened literally every rally the past several months. Really it’s a win win, I’ll either make money or pay less taxes. 😂

  29. everyone thinks we will either pump or dump so the market will trade sideways when the number comes in right on the estimate

  30. After the shenanigans today w/ PPI and FOMC moments and then a it grinding theta all day, I've gone cash. I sold my puts for the profit that I'd accumulated over Monday and Tuesday. I'm no longer confident in what will happen tomorrow.

  31. Gas decreasing in price was the only thing that was making cpi numbers look okay tomorrow is going to be a disaster we just don't know if it's priced in yet?

  32. I'm doing many rain dances and god prayers tonight to have a market pump tomorrow. Wish me luck everyone. CPI: 8.3%

  33. The most over valued and rate sensitive sector is tech. I’m all in on TECS an inverse bear ETF for the TEC sector. If it crashes I going to the fucking noon.

  34. I bet on a drop, but all the doom and gloom so far end of day today about how high cpi will be, unless it's staggeringly high we going to be green cuz these regards will be like "ohh look, only 8.4%, that's not bad, everyone was saying 337%, that's not bad at all. Bottom is in!".

  35. Eh. Vix 34? Algos have been buying that. I don't really see any edge in trying to guess tomorrow. Ideally it would be nice to have a nice Vix Spike above 40 where market makers have to scramble to cover positions. That would be buyable for the short-term trade

  36. If people panic sell because of record low unemployment, people are going to panic sell no matter what cpi data says.

  37. Market will crater on the open from CPI report. Regards with puts don't take profits and the market finds a bid with that out of the way.

  38. If it's better than expected we are going to get a ferocious rally all day long. If it's as expected or worse, selling.

  39. The market is going up tomorrow as the consensus, for now, is that we'll see lower CPI numbers tomorrow.

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