Zelensky insists missile that hit Poland was Russian

  1. Not to get too deep into conspiracy thinking here, but there is a possibility that Poland and NATO are saying it isn't a Russian missile just so that they aren't pressured into taking military action that they don't want, and that also Zelensky is right and it was a Russian missile.

  2. It’s very unfortunate the loss of lives, damage of property in Poland. Shit happens. As sadly as bad as it were those losses, no point in doing WW 3.

  3. This is literally what Steven Pinker talks about. The world is less violent (and everyone wins) when states occasionally forgive each other. Back in the day, we had giant world wars because of things like this.

  4. If the U.S. wanted to engage Russia, the missile would have been "from Russia." The U.S. apparently doesn't want to engage Russia directly, so the missile wasn't from Russia. The actual origin of the missile doesn't enter the equation determining the "origin" of the missile.

  5. It could also have been a russian missile that was damaged by antimissile systems in use by the Ukranians, but not fully destroyed. This happened a lot with SCUDs in the first gulf war, and resulted in some civilian casualties.

  6. It's more probable, in my 2 cents opinion, that a Russian missile malfunction and flew past it's originally intended target..though I doubt NATO wants to go to war over an unfortunate accident (to say the least), Russian or Ukrainian. But shit, what do I know? (Nothing lol)

  7. In the end it doesn't matter. Nobody is going to invoke article 5 over what was clearly an accident, regardless of whose accident it was. If military targets in Poland were being struck, that's a different story, but that's clearly not what happened here.

  8. Yeah that’s what I’m thinking. I think the air defense story is cover to prevent escalation considering what original sources were saying, and I also believe it was not intentional. Not escalating things over this was the right move here imo.

  9. Exactly this. He is gonna have his spin, theyll have theirs. We'll figure out the truth and handle it accordingly.

  10. Yep, and the more reliable sources (NATO/Poland) think it was most likely a Ukrainian missile but have yet to make a definitive statement to that effect.

  11. The UN is far from objective. It’s a platform for global discussion and cooperation. The UN mainly reflects global power dynamics, and very little if any of the participating states are committed to objectivity and all participation is by definition non-neutral - normative and interest-driven dialogue to further cooperation is precisely the purpose of the UN. A reliable answer to the missile origin question needs to be the exact opposite of normative and interest-driven: it’s an empirical question, not a normative one, and any fact-finding inquiry should strive to be as impartial as possible, so the relevant parties (i.e. NATO/Poland) have an accurate factual basis to incorporate with their normative and interest-driven judgement in decision making. That’s what intelligence agencies are usually tasked with: collection and synthesis of empirical data pertinent to defense and other national interests.

  12. I mean, also consider NATO has an incentive to 1) not enter war with Russia, and 2) not be seen getting hit by a Russian missile and doing nothing about it.

  13. Or are the people launching cruise missiles or SAMS. I can imagine a lot of "it was them" occurs when a please explain comes from high command.

  14. Welcome to reddit, they take everything Zelensky says at face value. Don't pretend people care about the UN all of a sudden

  15. I wish more people recalled what you just said after 20 years of peace and start questioning what is the point of the UN.

  16. NATO (or the UN really) aren't unbiased sources either. Literally everyone involved but Ukraine gains by this being Ukraine's missile. No one wants to escalate and go to war.

  17. This is 100% a true statement, but that doesnt make it unlikely he is correct. Maybe i havent gotten enough information about the incident but who else could have fired it? Belarus on behalf of russia?? Any other scenario i can think of sounds very unlikely.

  18. The Economist reported that the missile was a S300 surface to air missile likely used by Ukraine to shoot down incoming Russian missiles. Somehow it malfunctioned and ended up in Poland. The reason it probably wasn’t Russian is because the range of the S300 is small and therefore it has to be launched from within Ukrainian territory.

  19. I personally have this sneaking suspicion that NATO is covering it up and saying it was Ukraine because no one wants to escalate anything with Russia. By blaming Ukraine everything remains as is and the shit show goes on. Russia may have truly done it by accident and to save face NATO agreed to say it was Ukraine and move on. I just found it odd how Biden came out saying it was Ukraine soon after the meeting and was calling it a done deal.

  20. IMHO the best thing Zelensky could do right now is not say anything, encourage an investigation, and accept whatever results come from it. He currently has most of the world on his side, becoming an unreliable narrator is just going to make things worse for Ukraine.

  21. Are people forgetting the snake island and ghost of Kiev lies? Ukraine has no qualms with making up stuff and nobody cares either way because the world will always be on their side against Russia

  22. He's been an unreliable narrator. This is just the first time he's being called out by his allies so it's the first time you believe it.

  23. For me it still leaves a bad taste. The line between honest support and defending Europe until the last Ukrainian is becoming thinner.

  24. It's a shame but he hasn't exactly been the most reliable since the start even though I usually am on his side. But stuff like this makes me question his authenticity

  25. I have no doubt Zelensky believes this. I do have doubt that all SAMS operators firing missiles near the Polish borders will be entirely honest with command about fucking up.

  26. I’ll just wait, it was worrying before for the reiterations but now it’s obvious no one is going to move, there’s time for a clear investigation.

  27. To be clear to anyone who hasn't been paying attention to this story as it unfolded: the overwhelming evidence is that it was a Ukrainian S-300 missile that was attempting to intercept a Russian cruise missile, failed, and then the usual self-destruct mechanism failed causing the missile to continue flying until it landed in Poland.

  28. It makes sense than an S-300 launched to defend Lviv or nearby could end up in Poland. Either way the situation is sufficiently political that the truth will likely never be fully known even if much direct evidence is uncovered.

  29. The missile had a certain range that no russian units are even close to being in range for. So unless the S-300 can be fired from a long range russian incursion over air or something.. it came from Ukranian ground forces unfortunately.

  30. The truth is definitely known. NATO has AWACS which monitor the area and can track each missile in range. Whether or not they want to be 100% honest with that info is another thing.

  31. The truth is absolutely known and was pretty obvious all along. Occam’s razor and all that. The fact Reddit briefly chose to believe a truth more convenient to its preconceived biases is irrelevant

  32. The first ones i heard was "Russian missiles shot down by the ukrainian anti air force having fragments land in poland"

  33. Way too many people think NATO would respond to an accidental missile strike with a full on invasion. If it was Russian at most NATO would respond with an air strike destroying the missile launcher it came from and say don’t do it again and Russia would reply with Ukraine will pay for this and everything would continue on as normal.

  34. If Zelensky is going to insist on this despite NATO and US intelligence saying otherwise, then they're playing a very dangerous game here. Either Russia managed to fake a SAM misfire from Ukrainian land in order to pin it on Ukraine, or Ukraine is openly willing to lie about or perhaps even false flag possible attacks from Russia and neither of those look particularly amazing here.

  35. There’s also the option that Zelensky hasn’t been shown any definite proof, so therefore he is not lying, he’s simply choosing to trust his own military over the US, which makes sense because he would be in a bad position if he sided with the US against the express denial of his AA command.

  36. I dont believe in conspiracies, but i have this feeling that even if the missile was really Russian, the west would say it was Ukrainian as a diplomatic way to avoid WW3.

  37. I really doubt it. Even if they invoked article 5, they would probably just use it to increase the security of Polish airspace, sort of how the US used it after 9/11. Nothing about article 5 mandates war. If NATO wanted a war, we would already have it.

  38. You don't need WW3 to respond to ab accident. You could make positional statement which is what NATO should do deterr Russia from future provocations

  39. Whether or not that is true, Zelensky needs to get on board with the NATO message. Continuing to contradict the people helping his cause is not the right action.

  40. The range of S300 isn’t long enough that Russia could launch it from any of their territories or occupied areas (or Belarus) and strike Poland (atleast the blast site).

  41. Can you imagine the shit eating grin on Putins face if Nato were covering up for him. Nato would lose all credibility and no threat they make would ever hold weight again in his eyes. Even worse it moves the goalposts on what he get away with next. I refuse to believe we'd do this.

  42. I have the same felling. If nato says it was russian they will have to do something otherwise they become a dog that barks and doesnt bite.

  43. Zelensky said if it was Ukrainian then they should apologize to Poland, but before they do that they want to see the investigational data from NATO because as far as they are aware from their own data, it was not a Ukrainian missile.

  44. This is the main point. There's been a lot of speculation on whether it was an S300 or a KH-101, whether it was 1 or 2 missiles etc.

  45. Cmon man, just own up to it. They examined the debris and it was most likely an AA missile without enough range to have been launched from anywhere but Ukraine. Accidents happen, especially in war. Suck it up, apologize, pay the families, and move on. Coming off as an unreliable narrator will help you nowhere.

  46. Look, I think most people want Zelenskyy to be correct and find blame directly on Russia. Whatever, that would bring. NATO Article 5 invocation or similar. BUT clear and concise evidence is needed and it's just not there. I think the thing to be mindful of is the fact that one missile lands in a NATO country and leaders quickly assembled. That should give Zelenskyy confidence that even though he feels he needs more aid, more weapons, etc. if Putin and Russia slip up anywhere along the line, he will get an immediate response from NATO/Western allies.

  47. I would also rather believe them. And on balance with the S300 being a surface to air missile, much more likely to have been fired by Ukraine. Given the longest range version is only 250miles I’d like to know how it would get to Poland if fired by Russia…..

  48. If Zelensky has intelligence that runs counter to what the Polish and US have then he can share it. Otherwise this was a Ukranian SAM that went off course.

  49. People in here absolutely salivating at the prospect of WW3, and desperate to believe literally anything that comes out of Zelensky’s mouth - despite all of the evidence pointing to it being a Ukrainian fuck up.

  50. Everyone involved has infinite reasons to lie about it if the middle was theirs, and zero incentive to tell the truth. Even the UN has plenty of reason to lie if it actually was Russias, to avoid WWIII. We will probably never know the truth.

  51. If it had been Russian, then it was transparently obvious that it was an accidental misfire. That wouldn't start WWIII. They don't need to invent some elaborate false story to cover it. They just... wouldn't start WWIII.

  52. Not really. Most people are not going to denounce Ukraine even if it was truly their missile and it was just an accident. In fact, if Zelenskyy has not been so fast to accuse Russia and has remained calm and responsible, this can actually be a huge pr boost for Ukraine. What with “we are an honest and responsible people, unlike a certain nation to the east of us.” Now the people on the fence will see Zelenskyy with a little bit more cautions. Dude is really willing to urge for WW3 at soon as an opportunity arises.

  53. Initially, there was a report of 2 missiles however all we were shown was one crash site, one creator and one debrie field. The missile remnant found at the field was what appears to be an engine of S300 SAM missile. Russian S300s are positioned outside of the range of crash sight, unless it was fired from Belarus (and no one is talking about that). Most likely the S300 missile fired by Ukrainians to intercept failed to self-destruct.

  54. It’s Poland, the guys who actually have access to the physical missile remains and the US who have the most advanced surveillance and intelligence service in the region, vs the president of the country that accidentally bombed Poland

  55. It’s one obviously stray missile likely among many, but this is the first we know of to mistakenly kill innocent civs (because the others were purposeful). Hardly a reason to bring major world powers toe to toe.

  56. The location where a missile hit the Polish locality of Przewodów is situated exactly on the latitude of Kyiv and the longitude of Lviv (50.47099, 23.93432)

  57. People seems to not realize that both sides use SAME S-300 air defence systems (it's not just missiles it's mobile complex) I'm 100% sure it's not the first time this old Soviet missile malfunction and fall onto civilian houses, however this time it fell on 3rd party country soil and you just can't really say it was fired by Russia because it simply can't be fired from THAT range (Cannot reach position it fell from any position where currently RU troops are stationed). This denial especially after recent news will only place doubt in his other statements.

  58. What Ukraine’s global allies said is: this is a tragedy, and direct result of the cacophony of missiles Russia launched at Ukraine. Missiles AGAIN targeting civilian infrastructure, some very far from the front and adjacent to Poland! The Wanton attack by moscovites resulted in a huge air defense effort by Ukraine; and the S300 is not perfect. More modern AA needed ASAP to mitigate how many stray missiles could cause collateral damage.

  59. yeah both NATO and the US ministry and i believe one other all said "This is possible its from ukrainian anti air but make no mistake that the only reason this happened is Putin and his attack on Ukraine"

  60. This is not a good look for Zelensky or Ukraine. Honestly he should just shut up about this incident and move on.

  61. Hope Zelensky will soon realize this is a mistake. This will only cause frictions between him and western leaders.

  62. Because it’s not confirmed and Zelensky siding with the US and taking their word over that of his own military is a bad look for him domestically.

  63. This was probably an errant Ukrainian missile, but Zelensky has nothing to gain by admitting it was a Ukrainian screw up. Best case, it can't be proven either way, so Zelensky can stick to his story. Worst case, it's proven to be a Ukrainian mishap, then Zelensky can change the narrative and take partial responsibility, but ultimately still place most of the blame at the feet of Russia, because Ukraine wouldn't be firing anti-air missiles near the Polish border if Russia never invaded Ukraine and was launching barrages against Ukraine.

  64. Is he trying to instigate WW3? The US, UN, and NATO say it's a Ukrainian mistake which is the better outcome than an actual Russian attack be it accidental or intentional

  65. It's funny how people forgot how much clamor there was about Zelensky being corrupt prior to the war. There were accusations of nepotism in his governmental appointments

  66. I agree tbh. At this point, Zelensky just screams at everyone whos helping him that he needs even more money and equipment. He gets that money and equipment and still screams that he needs more. He's willing to drag the world into a nuclear war and just contradicts what the NATO investigation has found.

  67. It may have been, but two deaths are not good enough reason to escalate a war that would turn into another war that would kill millions. Sending more aid though. That might be arranged. I'm waiting for Poland to make a decision as it were its people killed.

  68. I’m not much of a conspiracy theorist but it wouldn’t take much for the USA, Associated Press, etc., to come up with a narrative that prevented war.

  69. My conspiracy theory, which I'm not actually convinced of but it's plausible. There was a gasoline terminal near the village. The Russians targeted it and fired from Belarus for deniability. Either they were conservative with fuel due to supply constraints or their maps were off so the missiles came up short and hit the neighboring village instead. The Russians deny the attack as they planned and NATO, not wanting to go to war use the path of the missiles to claim it came from Ukraine (and calls it air defense fire that missed to get them off the hook). Russia doesn't call out NATO because it gets them off the hook but Ukraine understandably goes WTF.

  70. I feel like this is just going to encourage idiots to come up with conspiracy theories about how it was launched by Ukraine at Poland deliberately in a false flag attack to try and get NATO to intervene on their behalf.

  71. Because the fucking guy is warmonger who wants to start WW3 and end the fucking world. This guy is a piece of shit and you assholes have his cock down your throat backing up everything he says. Same shit as Fauci. You fucking losers need to get a life and a hobby.

  72. Well Ukraine wouldn’t have to be shooting missiles at anything if the Russian terrorists weren’t blanket bombing Ukraine. Ultimately it is The evil empire that is to be held accountable for this situation.

  73. Eh.. I get it, and I agree with Meloni that it doesn't matter whose missile it is - if it was a Ukrainian s300 then it was still a result of russia's attacks. But denying it after allies have established the facts is not a good look

  74. When he's not milking the US for money, he's doing a press tour. The guy is somehow a grifter while simultaneously being in charge of a country

  75. It has been interesting all year to watch how everyone with a reddit account is an expert in war, military, weapons tech, and political strategies.

  76. The point is NATO isnt about to start WW3 for that wether it was Russian or Ukraine or it was deliberate or a runaway mistake. It will take someting a little bit less like Pearl Harbor damages for NATO to actually do something. Either way,life is still somewhat good for the majority of the world's population(perspectively) so nobody really wants to start an armageddon yet.

  77. Regardless of what is the final verdict and blame pushing, it is ultimately Poo-tin’s fault who is the root cause of this whole fking war and problems. May he NOT RIP for causing so much deaths and problems in this world.

  78. Biden's statement that it was actually Ukraine, is an attempt to cool everyone's jets, due to how volatile the situation is. Zelensky is just being honest.

  79. Tbh I have my doubts where the missile came from. But Whether Russian by mistake or purposefully; Or Ukraine Missile error, or perhaps even desperation to involve Nato for protection:

  80. According to this the Russian that typed in the coordinates fucked up the numbers and by mistake misread and mixed 2 Ukrainian Cities longitude and latitudes.

  81. I’m not saying it was on purpose. I just find it strange that in a barrage ware infrastructure was a target. A grain processing plant in Poland, and a power plant in Moldova were “accidentally” struck. It warrants further investigation.

  82. I can understand why Zelensky keeps insisting that it was Russia who did it. But I think it might be better to try to translate this into more and better AA equipment if that isn't already in the cards. (Hard to keep track these days)

  83. This is honestly rather worrying because his rather insistence to blame Russia over this rather than accept the fact that this was an accident makes one wonder if this was the first time or has this happened before several times?

  84. He really needs to just back off and admit an honest mistake, doubling and tripling down on something your allies are saying the opposite on is a bad look and will just fuel future Russian disinformation ops

  85. Omfg. There are satellites. These satellites can see launch point. Flight path, impact points and even determine what kind of munition is fired based off heat signature.... there is no guessing with this shit.

  86. Zelensky doubted and went against US intel about Russia forming on their border and preparing an attack too.

  87. Drop it, dude. If it was Ukrainian, they already gave you guys a way out saying that you're not to blame. And if it was Russian, they already showed that they're not gonna admit it to preserve peace. There's nothing to win here.

  88. There this screenshot going around with coordinates of the Polish crash site. Top coordinates are top coordinates for Kyiv, and bottom for Lviv. Both cities were bombed that day. Pretty interesting coincidence.

  89. This motherfucker doesnt understand the assignment. It doesn’t matter if it was or wasnt a Ukrainian missile… it was a Ukrainian missile.

  90. Z man ain't doing himself any favors here. Please drink a tall glass of shut up juice and get back to hammering the RF front lines.

  91. I love how people religiously stick up to their allegiances and trust everything that says "your side good" and deny even a possibility of their side even simply making a mistake. Like, do yall expect everything affirming your views?

  92. This goin get down voted but since we all playing politics and Ukraine is asking for more and more support I think there's a possibility that that strike was ordered by him to boost up support

  93. I'm fed up of Zelensky. He is always playing the innocent. However his government was always corrupt and dishonest.

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